桥梁耦合极值应力的贝叶斯动态预测
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U441+.5

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国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金资助项目(51922036);安徽省重点研发计划(1804a0802204);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(JZ2020HGPB0117)


Bayesian dynamic prediction of bridge coupled extreme stresses
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    摘要:

    为了更合理地动态预测桥梁耦合极值应力,将历史监测极值应力数据视为多阶模态响应耦合的多分量信号,并结合 Hilbert 信号分解以及 Hilbert 平方解调技术(Hilbert Square Demodulation,HSD)在多分量信号解调方面的优势,提出了预测桥梁极值应力的贝叶斯 Hilbert动态线性模型(Bayesian Hilbert Dynamic Linear Model,BHDLM)。利用 Hilbert 信号分解技术实现对监测极值应力的解耦,并基于 HSD 建立了各阶应力响应的 Hilbert 动态线性模型(Hilbert Dynamic Linear Model,HDLM);结合贝叶斯方法以及单分量极值应力对 HDLM 进行概率递推,实现了对单分量桥梁极值应力的动态预测,进而可得桥梁耦合极值应力的动态预测;利用在役桥梁的监测数据对本文所提模型的有效性进行了验证。结果表明:利用解耦得到的单分量极值应力数据建立的 HDLM 过程简单,并能很好地反映出监测数据的周期性、随机性等特点。结合贝叶斯方法,可以有效地对桥梁极值应力进行动态预测。

    Abstract:

    To predict the bridge coupled extreme stress more reasonably,the bridge monitoring extreme stresses are regarded as the multi-component signals coupled with multi-modal responses. Based on the advantages of Hilbert signal decomposition and Hilbert square demodulation(HSD)technology in terms of the demodulation of multi-component signals,the Bayesian Hilbert Dynamic Linear Model(BHDLM)is proposed for the dynamic prediction of bridge extreme stress. The monitoring extreme stresses are decoupled into several mono-component extreme stresses by the Hilbert signal decomposition technique. The Hilbert Dynamic Linear Model(HDLM)of each mono-component extreme stress is developed by the HSD subsequently. Based on the mono-component extreme stress and the Bayesian method,the probability recursive processes of HDLM are introduced to dynamically predict the mono-component extreme stresses. Once the dynamic prediction of the mono-component extreme stresses is realized,the bridge coupled extreme stress data can be further obtained successfully. The validity of the proposed model is verified by the monitoring data of a bridge in service. The results show that the proposed HDLM based on the decoupled mono-component extreme stress can take account of the periodicity,randomness of the monitoring data despite the simple process of HDLM,and can be used to dynamically predict the bridge extreme stresses with Bayesian method.

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戈 壁,王佐才,辛 宇,李 舒,丁雅杰,孙晓彤.桥梁耦合极值应力的贝叶斯动态预测[J].振动工程学报,2022,35(3):681~690.[GE Bi, WANG Zuo-cai, XIN Yu, LI Shu, DING Ya-jie, SUN Xiao-tong. Bayesian dynamic prediction of bridge coupled extreme stresses[J]. Journal of Vibration Engineering,2022,35(3):681~690.]

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-07-19
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